FACT CHECK: Outbound Moves Threatening Massachusetts’ Economic Future

This week, two indexes – the U-Haul 2024 Growth Index and the 2024 National Movers Study by United Van Lines – were released, adding new data to the ongoing conversation about outmigration in Massachusetts.

The U-Haul Growth Index ranked Massachusetts 49th out of all 50 states for growth. This is the second year in a row the U-Haul Index has ranked Massachusetts so poorly. U-Haul reported that 52 percent of one-way rentals in Massachusetts were for individuals moving out of the state.

Comparatively, United Van Lines found that 57.9 percent of their Massachusetts moves were outbound, ranking it the state with the fifth-most leaving residents in 2024.

Let’s dive deeper into the data and see what it shows and why it matters.

FACT: Massachusetts has a real outmigration problem.

Some recent reports have downplayed concerns over outmigration, noting that Massachusetts’ population is actually on the rise due to immigration. The stories of slowed outmigration are misleading, however, as outmigration levels were 10 times greater in 2023 than they were in 2010. Each year, Massachusetts is losing thousands of residents thanks to our state’s rising cost of living and high taxes.

An analysis by Pioneer Institute finds roughly a decade ago, Massachusetts was losing $900 million with residents leaving the state. The UMass Donahue Institute found Massachusetts faced worker shortages back in 2014 and 2015 that were exacerbated by outmigration. The situation has only worsened over the last decade: between 2021 and 2022, the Commonwealth experienced a net loss of 45,614 tax filers, accounting for a $3.9 billion net loss in income leaving the state.

Current data highlights that the 26-to-44 age group – a critical demographic for future economic growth – is leaving the Commonwealth at an alarming rate. The 26-to-44 age bracket accounted for 44 percent of the total adjusted gross income (AGI) leaving the state.

This trend of young professionals leaving in droves threatens the state’s long-term economic health, as young workers are essential for the innovation economy and sustaining industries. The Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation credited the Bay State’s innovation economy as an emerging strength, but with key workforce demographics leaving the state, that could be in jeopardy. Our state’s inability to retain young professionals also underscores deeper challenges, including housing affordability and cost of living.

These survey conclusions concur with other data that put Massachusetts’ outmigration crisis in perspective. Using federal Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data, the MOA Opportunity Report Card gives Massachusetts a D+ in migration. IRS data shows Massachusetts ranks as one of the worst states for net outmigration of residents and income (following New York, California, Alaska, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland).

FACT: High-income individuals make up the largest percentage of those leaving.

The exodus of high earning individuals is not surprising, yet it remains concerning. Although MassBudget and others attempt to downplay the number of high-income earners that are moving out of Massachusetts, MOA analysis of IRS data previously highlighted that people making $200,000 or more account for 55 percent of all income leaving Massachusetts.

According to the United Van Lines study, 53.0 percent of residents leaving Massachusetts earn $150,000 or more annually. That percentage increases to 73.9 percent when those who earn $100,000 or more are factored into the equation.

While 56.9% of the individuals moving into Massachusetts earn $150,000 or more, the net loss still raises red flags. High-income earners contribute significantly to the tax base and local economies, and their departure leaves a financial void that other residents will have to fill.

FACT: People are considering taxes when moving.

Taxes remain a critical factor influencing migration decisions. High tax rates, coupled with Massachusetts’ already high cost of living, make the Commonwealth less appealing compared to other states.

MOA’s September polling revealed that 65.7 percent of respondents said that high taxes were a main factor in people leaving Massachusetts.

The U-Haul Growth Index further suggests that Americans, not just Bay Staters, are moving to states with lower tax rates and decreased overall tax burdens. The top five states with the largest growth in the U-Haul index (South Carolina, Texas, North Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee) have relatively low income taxes with three of the five states (Texas, Florida, and Tennessee) not having any state income tax.

The four worst performing states in the U-Haul growth rankings (New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and California) all have burdensome tax laws. In fact, the Tax Foundation ranks  New York, New Jersey, and California as the bottom three states in its 2025 State Tax Competitiveness Index.

Once again, this concurs with MOA’s own analysis of federal IRS data: the states receiving the most Massachusetts residents in 2022 were Florida and neighboring New Hampshire. Notably, both Florida and New Hampshire have no income tax. And, as of January 1, New Hampshire also stopped taxing interest and dividends, making the Granite State even more appealing for Massachusetts residents.