FACT CHECK: MassBudget Misses What’s Really Driving Residents Away

High taxes are pushing residents out of Massachusetts. When they go, they take billions of dollars of income with them. However, a recent report by the advocacy group MassBudget claims it’s affordability – not high taxes – that is to blame when it comes to outmigration.

This argument misses the mark on two key points: 1) The data overwhelmingly points to high taxes as a main factor driving people out of state. 2) Taxes and affordability go hand in hand, as an increasing tax burden impacts the cost of living.

FACT: Massachusetts Continues to Lose Residents.

Migration patterns matter. They give us a clear idea of where people believe their economic opportunity is the strongest.

In 2023, Massachusetts saw a net migration loss of 30,460 residents, with 150,394 people leaving the Commonwealth compared to 119,934 moving in. Massachusetts has experienced net outmigration for several years in a row. While the pace has fluctuated, the Commonwealth has consistently lost more residents than it has gained.

Competitor states like Florida, Texas, and North Carolina are moving in the opposite direction, attracting new residents, businesses, and investment year after year. Those gains strengthen their tax bases, expand their workforces, and give these states a growing economic advantage.

FACT: High Earners Play an Outsized Role in Outmigration.

The latest migration data shows Massachusetts is not simply losing residents, but also significant taxable income along with them. In 2023 alone, the Commonwealth experienced a net loss of more than $4.2 billion in adjusted gross income associated with outmigration. Notably, that marked a larger AGI loss than in 2022 despite fewer net departures overall, undercutting the argument that outmigration is primarily limited to lower- and middle-income households.

According to the Tax Foundation, Massachusetts lost an average of roughly $141,627 in adjusted gross income per outbound resident between 2022 and 2023, reinforcing concerns that higher earning taxpayers are leaving the state at elevated rates.

That distinction matters because high-income households contribute an outsized share of total income tax revenue. Following the adoption of the surtax on income over $1 million, Massachusetts has become increasingly reliant on a relatively small group of top earners to fund government spending and other state priorities. Even modest shifts in where these households choose to live can therefore carry significant long-term fiscal consequences.

FACT: High Taxes Impact Affordability and Drive People Out of State

In its recent report, MassBudget attempts to frame affordability concerns as the main driver of outmigration. It isolates high taxes as a separate, seemingly unrelated issue that it claims has little bearing on outmigration.

This flawed logic ignores how taxes contribute to cost of living and overall affordability. Massachusetts is an expensive state, but the reality is that high taxes compound already elevated housing, energy, and everyday living costs, increasing the overall financial burden of living in Massachusetts.

Polling repeatedly confirms that, even when asked about cost-of-living elements and taxes separately, Massachusetts residents identify the state’s tax burden as a top contributor to affordability concerns.  A new poll from MassINC found that more middle-class residents find taxes unaffordable for their household than struggle with healthcare, grocery, or childcare costs .

Many of the top destinations for former Massachusetts residents in 2023, like Florida, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, had significantly lower income tax burdens than the Commonwealth. MOA polling also found that roughly 70% of people who moved out of Massachusetts said tax policy was the main factor in their decision to leave the state.

The issue is not simply that residents are leaving Massachusetts, but that many of the states attracting them are outperforming the Commonwealth on affordability, tax competitiveness, and economic growth simultaneously.

Conclusion

Ignoring or downplaying the drivers behind outmigration will only exacerbate this trend in the future and could prevent policymakers from pursuing solutions that will address the root cause. Massachusetts faces growing competitive pressures from states attracting residents, income, and investment at the Commonwealth’s expense. Massachusetts can’t afford to dismiss the warning signs; we must urgently address the broader economic conditions driving people to leave.